My Canada's Optimum Population

My opinion on Canada's optimum population is 12,313.

I had previously done some thinking on what is an optimum population for Canada and the World:

Thursday, May 8, 2008 <---Canada (less than 1 million)
Monday, November 3, 2008 <--- World (About 2.5 million)

As you can see, my earlier guesstimate for Canada’s optimum population is too high in the context of my estimate for the world, which I think uses better metrics.

I have pro-rated my estimate for Canada's optimum sustainable population as follows:

33 million / 6,700 million = 0.49% (Canada is currently 0.49% of the world’s population, representing about 0.49% of earth’s carrying capacity)

0.49% of 2.5 million is 12,313 (5 million was the population of the earth before unsustainable cultivation agriculture began in 8000 B.C. but we’ve degraded the earth’s productivity by at least 50% since then so 2.5 million is about right for a sustainable optimum world population.)

Therefore my new guesstimate for Canada's optimum population, which would even make a high EROEI Hunter-Gatherer lifestyle possible, would be 12,313. At that level maybe we could all have gravity fed natural springs for our household water supplies. At that level, we wouldn't be building new nuclear power plants or continuing rapid species extinctions. At my dream population for Canada of 12,313 we would do just fine on existing hydroelectric dams alone.

For the USA, I will repeat the calculation to arrive at your optimum sustainable population:

308 million / 6,700 million = 4.6%

4.6% of 2.5 million = 114,925

Therefore the optimum population of the USA that would be sustainable in the long term without recklessly depleting soils, water, fuels, or biodiversity would be 114,925.

Using the same calculation…

China’s population of 1.3 billion should be reduced down to a sustainable optimum population of 485,074.

India’s population of 1.1 billion should be reduced down to a sustainable optimum population of 410,447.

Although these metrics may not be perfect, they are my best for the time being. In my opinion, these optimum population numbers would allow for the highest quality of life with the happiest and healthiest living for humans by protecting biodiversity and eliminating our dependency on complicated and harmful technologies.

To achieve these optimum populations, each country would have to reduce its fertility well below replacement through a system of taxation-and-bonuses and also reduce their net migration well below replacement by lowering their immigration intake quotas drastically. After these optimum populations are reached, government policy would still be required to ensure a steady-state via replacement fertility and a net migration of zero.

Brishen Hoff

November 21, 2008

(Final optimum population numbers colour coded by region)